Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Phillies Vs. Rockies: Game One

Tomorrow, the Phils make their first postseason appearance since game six on the 1993 world series, and they take on the beloved Colorado Rockies.

How can we expect the Phillies to fare in postseason play? Hard to say. A lot is made of the difference between the regular season and the postseason, and how different players perform differently under the circumstances. For an example, look no further than Trevor Hoffman's recent meltdown against the very same Rockies. However, most of the Phils' roster has yet to see the postseason, including the nucleus of the team (which I define as Hamels, Myers, Utley, Rollins, and Howard, homegrown Phillies, all).

The same can be said of the Colorado Rockies, where longtime vet Todd Helton makes his first ever postseason appearance. Expect a lot of nerves in the early inning of this first game: Both teams are likely eager to prove their legitimacy.

Another interesting element is the timing of the game at three o'clock. This could create some difficulty on the part of the hitters in seeing the ball. While this could work to Hamels' advantage, it could also work against the Philadelphia offense. People are expecting a high scoring series here, so we can't de surprised if it's a pitching struggle. Given this, you've got to take a close look at the two starters.

Cole Hamels: A pure strikeout pitcher, which is exactly what you want at Citizen's Bank Park. Unfortunately, the long ball has hurt Cole all season (he's given up twenty-five of them).

Jeff Francis: The Rockies' ace has a 4.22 ERA on the year, which is pretty good if you're a Rocky. Francis has also given up twenty-five home runs, albeit in approximately thirty more innings pitched. Francis is also less of a strikeout pitcher, and his K/BB ratio is 165/63 versus Cole's 177/43. These numbers are good, but the Phillies are rather exceptional at taking walks, with 641 of them (good for third in baseball).

Also of note is how well the Phils hit off of Francis in the few times they've seen him. Rollins is five for nine against him, Howard is two for five, and Burrell three for eight.

Contrasting, against Hamels, the Rockies have done nothing. This is in large part due to the fact that Cole has never pitched against the Rockies. This is bad news for Colorado. Traditionally, a pitcher always has the advantage the first time he sees a batter. While these guys can watch all the footage they'd like, they have yet to see Cole's impressive changeup baring down on them.

For this reason, the Phillies have a huge advantage in this game. Hopefully they can knock Francis out early and get to the bullpen quick, which won't have had much time to rest after the twelve inning Monday night marathon.

Go Phillies.