Phillies vs. Opponents (Number One)

First in an upcoming series, we’re ranking how the Phillies fare (on paper, of course) against their opponents in the National League. Our premier nemesis under discussion is the Chicago Cubs, one of the busiest clubs this offseason. Here’s a look at the major moves made by both clubs so far, and the projected opening day starters.


Cubs:
Re-signed 3B Aramis Ramirez for $75 million, five years
Signed OF Alfonso Soriano for $136 millon, eight years
Signed SP Ted Lilly for $40 million, four years
Signed SP Jason Marquis to for $21 million, three years

Phils:
Signed SP Adam Eaton for $24.5 million, three years
Signed 3B Wes Helms for $5.5 million, two years
Signed C Rod Barajas for$2.5 million, one year
Traded Minor Leaguers Gio Gonzalez and Gavin Floyd for SP Freddy Garcia

Phils Starting Rotation:
Brett Myers
Freddy Garcia
Cole Hamels
Jamie Moyer
Adam Eaton
Closer: Tom Gordon
Question Marks: Jon Lieber

Cubs Starting Rotation:
Carlos Zambrano
Mark Prior
Ted Lilly
Jason Marquis
Rich Hill
Closer: Ryan Dempster
Question Marks: Wade Miller

Phils Lineup:
1B Ryan Howard
2B Chase Utley
SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Wes Helms
LF Pat Burrell
CF Aaron Roward
RF Shane Victorino
C Carlos Ruiz/Rod Barajas

Cubs Lineup:

1B Derrek Lee
2B Mark DeLaRosa
SS Ronny Cedeno
3B Aramis Ramirez
LF Matt Murton
CF Alfonso Soriano
RF Jacque Jones
C Michael Barrett/Henry Blanco

I’ll be taking a look at how the teams match up in the following categories: Starting Rotation, Bullpen/Closer, Batting, Defense, and Coaching.

Starting Rotation:

Even with a healthy and able Mark Prior (about as sure as a slim and athletic David Wells), I still think you have to hand this category to the Phillies. Adam Eaton left several people scratching their heads in Philadelphia, but the move to bring in Freddy Garcia is an unquestionable upgrade. A lot of people are pointing to Garcia as a quality innings eater, but U.S. Cellular Field is a hitter’s park just like Citizen’s, AND Garcia is coming over from the American League. I think people will be surprised at the numbers he puts up. Before this trade even happened, the Phillies have (and still do have) a strong One-Two punch in Brett Myers and Cole Hamels, and while neither is yet the ace that Carlos Zambrano is, (although either could fall into that category depending on the outcome of this year) the presence of veteran Jamie Moyer (just as reliable as Garcia to log plenty of innings) is going to help these guys out. The Cubs threw money around wildly this offseason, and while the health of their rotation was one of their many problems last year, I don’t think Lilly and Marquis are the answer. Marquis is cashing in on some postseason glory and taking his erratic performance to the bank. Lilly has spent a lot of time with the AL East, which can beat up on anyone’s ERA, but he’s cashing in on $10 million a year with a W/L record one game over .500 (59-58). Sometimes people can lose their minds for a left hander, and I think this is evidence of just such a thing.

Edge: Phillies

Bullpen/Closer:

Ryan Dempster struggled to notch his 24 saves last season, but Howry and Eyre were solid options in the later innings. The Phillies, throwing out such stalwarts as Rick White and Arthur Rhodes in the eighth inning, certainly didn’t fair too well. The Phils didn’t usually lose games in the ninth because they were too busy losing them in the seventh and eighth. Geary was a highlight out of the bullpen, but he should be backed by a strong eighth inning option and insurance for Gordon.

Edge: Tie, at least until Gillick moves Lieber for bullpen help

Batting Lineup:

While the Phillies chased Alfonso Soriano, it was the Cubs that landed the big prize (or at least the most expensive prize) of this offseason. Also, if Derrek Lee can return to his ’04 season where he was a triple crown threat until around the all-star break, this team could be dangerous offensively. Barrett, Murton, and Jacque Jones can all get it done with the bat when they have a mind to, but none of them are locks like Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano. On the Phillies end of things, the biggest question mark is of course protection for Ryan Howard. No one’s denying the potency of the Utley/Howard tandem, but if Pat Burrell can’t get it done with the bat, Howard’s going to see a whole lot of ball fours this year. Also, a bigger offensive contribution is needed from Aaron Rowand, who will likely bat in the two or six hole. Still, the Phillies offense last season led the NL in runs scored, and without losing any big contributors, a return to form is expected.

Edge: Phillies

Coaching:

Given the disappointments of the Cubs’ past two seasons, Dusty Baker has been sent packing, and the always excited Lou Piniella steps into the driver’s seat. A lot of the injuries to his starters aren’t Dusty’s fault, but he’d been developing (and rightly so) a reputation for leaving his pitchers hanging out to dry. Piniella, on the other hand, has a reputation for being angry and fiery. It will be interesting to see if he has any personality conflicts with other notorious hotheads such as Carlos Zambrano. In either case, he’s a sound baseball man, and certainly his coaching takes the cake over good time Charlie, who even at season’s end thought running out such notorious wunderkinds as Arthur Rhodes (whose ERA was the only thing larger than Rick White’s gut in the Phillies’ bullpen) in the eighth inning could result in good things.

Edge: Cubs

Overall: Both teams made improvements to their starting rotation, and the Cubs added a big bat in Soriano. However, the Phillies’ rotation certainly looks stronger (and healthier) than the Cubs, and that combined with a potent offense gives the Phillies the series edge.

Winner: Phillies
Prediction: Phillies take four games out of seven

Now go bask in the glory of the Eagles victory last night, faithful readers.