Phils vs. Opponents episode IV

Continuing our series of matching the Phillies against their National League opponents, this time we move over to the Houston Astros. The Astros signed one of the biggest sluggers of the offseason (Carlos Lee), but they also lost one of their big pitchers in Andy Petitte. The Phils went 0-6 against the Astros in 2005, one of the primary reasons the ‘Stros went to the playoffs (and subsequently the World Series) and the Phillies watched on television. However, the Phillies rebounded nicely in 2006, posting a 4-2 record against Houston. How’s it going to break down this year? Here’s Houston’s roster, offseason moves, and my prediction. Click here for the Phillies’ roster.

Offseason Moves:

Signed LF Carlos Lee for $100 million, 6 years
Signed SP Woody Williams for $12.5 million, 2 years
Traded Willy Taveras, Taylor Buchholz, and Jason Hirsh for Jason Jennings and Miquel Asencio
Signed 2B Mark Loretta for $2.5 million, one year

Houston Lineup:

1B Lance Berkman
2B Craig Biggio
SS Adam Everett
3B Morgan Ensberg
LF Carlos Lee
CF Chris Burke
RF Jason Lane
C Brad Ausmus/ Humberto Quintero

Houston Starting Rotation:

Roy Oswalt
Jason Jennings
Woody Williams
Wandy Rodriguez
Ezequiel Astacio

Closer: Brad Lidge

Question Marks: Roger Clemens, although it seems likely he’ll head to the Yanks.

Starting Rotation:

Any conversation about the Astros’ starting rotation starts with Roy Oswalt. The only problem is, it doesn’t end there. The Astros ranked second in ERA in the National League. Oswalt had the lowest ERA for a starting pitcher in the NL (min 150 IP), and the 2^nd lowest DIPS. Keep in mind that Minute Maid is also a hitter’s park, so these guys must be doing something right. It will be interesting to see how newcomer Jason Jennings does. His numbers were decent last year, and he pitched plenty of games at Coors Field, the most notorious hitter’s park in baseball. However, in 11 innings against the Phils last year, he posted a 9.00 ERA and an atrocious .362 BAA, his worst against any NL team. Here’s hoping the Phils still have his number.

Edge: Tie. I’d give it to the Phillies, but Oswalt neutralizes that. If Clemens returns to Houston, I might give it to them, but the most we could see him would be once in July. The Phillies have more depth, I'll give them that.

Bullpen/Closer:

Remember ole Brad Lidge? That 5.28 ERA this past season certainly wasn’t attractive. Nevertheless, the Astros pen got it done often enough, good for 5^th in bullpen ERA in the league, so certainly higher tier. The Phillies bullpen, well…it needs work these days. Here’s an article about them trying to get it together, and with Arthur Rhodes and Rick White out of the picture, that should help.

Edge: Astros

Batting:

Here’s where the Phillies come in clutch. The Phils offense blows away the Astros. The Astros had the lowest batting average in the NL, and the 2^nd lowest in slugging. I don’t even want to think about these guys without Lance Berkman. However, in one of the monster deals of the offseason, Carlos Lee cashed in big to play at Minute Maid Park. He’s not worth what he was given, but his bat should help a club that struggled. Another key to the Astros batting will be the play of Morgan Ensberg, who had a particularly awful season last year, batting .235 with 58 rbi’s. And Phillies fans complain about Pat Burrell.

Edge: Phillies

Coaching:

I don’t really know much about Phil Garner. I keep thinking about how entertaining it was to watch him interviewed in the last All Star game, and his surprise at Beltran stealing second. I do know plenty about Charlie Manuel, and I don’t much like what I know. I'm considering taking coaching out of these little pieces, not because I don't think its important, but its hard to evaluate. There's no great coaching stats, you know. I mean, everyone knows Leyland and LaRussa and Torre are good coaches, and Manuel isn't very good, but how can you really evaluate this? If anyone has any great ideas, let me know.

Edge: Astros. Why not?

Defense: There’s some great information about the Phillies’ defense, and its subpar performance in the 2006 season over at A Citizen’s Blog (scroll down to the info about Defensice Metrics). It’s hard to ask for much from Ryan Howard, but an improved defense would be nice. Of course, the real important defensive contribution will need to come from Aaron Rowand in center. As for the Astros, Everett is a strong defensive player, as is Biggio, although I wonder if the years are slowing him down. A crucial mistake by David Bell against the Astros cost the Phillies a one game playoff in 2005, so defense should not be forgotten.

Edge: Astros.

Bottom Line:

I’d like to give it to the Phillies, but I think the Astros have a pretty strong ball club with the addition of Carlos Lee, and Jennings could theoretically offset the loss of Petitte. I’m seeing a split here, three a piece. I’ll try to get in some more stats to this piece tomorrow, and we’ll talk about an NL East foe next time.

Previous Matchups:

Phils vs. San Diego
Phils vs. Florida
Phils vs. Cubs