Charging forward with the Phillies against the WORLD (or at least the National League), we now look at the Milwaukee Brewers, perennially poor and mildly successful team with such fun loving guys as Prince Fielder and Ben Sheets. Last year, the Brewers destroyed the Phillies, beating them 5 times to 1. Can we expect similar defeat in the face of the boys from Milwaukee this year? Read on and find out. As always, check out this or this to take a look at the Phillies.
Brewers Offseason Attack:
Traded pitchers Doug Davis, Dana Eveland and OF David Krynzel to Diamondbacks for C Johnny Estrada and pitcher Claudio Vargas
Signed SS/IF Craig Counsell for two years, $6 million
Signed SP Jeff Suppan for four years, $42 million
SS Bill Hall signed four-year extension, $24 million
Brewers Rotation:
Ben Sheets
Chris Capuano
Jeff Suppan
Claudio Vargas
Dave Bush
Closer: Francisco Cordero/Derrick Turnbow
Brewers Lineup:
1B Prince Fielder
2B Rickie Weeks
SS J.J. Hardy
3B Tony Graffanino
LF Geoff Jenkins
CF Bill Hall
RF Corey Hart
C Johnny Estrada/Damian Miller
Question Mark: Craig Counsell
Starting Rotation:
The Brewers have some good arms in their five. Ben Sheets has spent a lot of his life on the DL the past season, but no one’s going to deny his “ace” status when he’s healthy. Chris Capuano is a capable number two guy (4.03 ERA, 3.94 DIPS) and everyone is in love with talking about his pickoff move (not that that makes a great pitcher). I’ve never been a huge Suppan fan, and he was rather lucky last year (4.12 ERA as compared to 4.64 DIPS and a pretty awful 4.93 K/9). Also, I think the really unheralded guy in this group is Dave Bush. Compare his 4.41 ERA to his 3.92 DIPS and it wouldn’t be a stretch to predict a big year from him. He also has a solid 7.11 K/9. It will be interesting to see how Vargas performs. I’m expecting big things from Sheets, Bush, and Capuano, and I think they’ll be solid performers this year.
Edge: Tie
Bullpen:
Every Phillies blog out there is freaking out about our bullpen this year, and rightly so. We simply don’t have many good arms to rely on. What about the Brewers? Well, both Francisco Cordero and Derrick Turnbow have been solid closers in the past, although Turnbow struggled mightily last year, posting a 6.87 ERA to accompany his 24 saves. Cordero looked a lot better, and the closer job is his to lose as we begin the regular season. However, should Turnbow return to form, the two of them could be one of the most solid eigth/ninth inning combinations in the National League. Keep in mind, this is a big if. Who else is down there providing relief for Milwaukee? Matt Wise had a decent year, posting a 3.86 ERA in his 44 innings. Other than that, there’s plenty of rookies, or average relievers. If Turnbow fails, the Brewers bullpen could become just as much a mystery as the Phillies’.
Edge: Brewers, barely
Batting Lineup:
There’s a lot of solid talent on the Brewers. Prince Fielder is poised to become a star, and I think Rickie Weeks, coming off of his wrist surgery, could become a solid leadoff man if he starts swiping more bases. One of the quieter home run tallies from last season was Bill Hall’s 35 blasts, and a solid .270 BA to accompany it isn’t too shabby either. Unfortunately, a couple of quality players does not a batting lineup make. Graffanino isn’t a star offensive player, and Mench is incredibly streaky (remember his home run onslaught last year for a couple weeks after he got himself some new shoes?) and more of a five or six hole hitter than a cleanup man. Last year, the Brewers scored 135 less runs than the Phillies (865 vs. 730) despite barely batting better with RISP (.263 BA vs. the Phillies’ .255). The team had a solid OBP (.356, 8th in NL) but couldn’t bring guys home, slugging only .399 (13th in the NL). It will be interesting to see what Estrada brings to the team, as well as Counsell in whatever capacity he is used. I really like Counsell, and should Weeks falter as a lead off man, I would find Counsell a spot to play everyday ASAP, because he’s the kind of guy that will never win a batting title, but brings his heart and head into every game and every situation he encounters. I like the Brewers, but I don’t see this offense as being anything special.
Edge: Phillies
Defense:
The Brewer’s defense is below average, with Weeks being a particularly weak standout last year, posting a .952 fielding percentage at second base. The Brewers allowed the fourth most errors in the NL with 117 last year, and their .980 team fielding percentage got them 13th in the NL, both of them below the league averages. As has been referenced here before and has been covered extensively on other blogs, the Phillies defense had a particularly bad year last year, and a lot of people (myself included, obviously) are hoping for a better performance in the 2007 season.
Edge: Phillies, barely
Final Verdict:
The Brewers have the starting pitching to compete with the Phils, and that’s just about the most important area in which they could compete. Keep in mind the Brewers pounded the Phillies last year. I’m not expecting a similar result this year, but I don’t want my bias to affect my opinion any more than it already has. And that’s why I’m going to have to say:
Bottom Line: Phillies 4, Brewers 3. It's close, I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers one the series again, particularly if we see some of their better starting pitching. Come back soon for how our Phils compete with the last year’s world champs, the St. Louis Cardinals. As always, click below for more of my ramblings on the Phillies chances against the enemy.
NL East:
Atlanta
Florida
NY Mets
Washington
NL Central:
Cincinnati
Houston
Chicago Cubs
NL West:
ArizonaSan FranciscoSan Diego
