Phillies vs. Opponents (Part Deux)

Continuing the analysis of the Phillies versus their opponents in the National League, lets take a look at those madcap Marlins. Despite the firesale of most of their team following the 2005 season (my favorite quote from said event was A.J. Burnett’s “They better teach Dontrelle Willis to play all nine positions”) the Marlins were no pushovers last year, and were involved in the wild card hunt for almost as long as our boys in red and white. But alas, the Phillies, long tortured by those rascally Florida boys, went 13-6 against the Marlins last year. How have the Marlins done this offseason, and how do the Phillies stack up? Here’s a look at the Marlins’ MAJOR moves (oh wait, there are none, fancy that), and their roster if baseball began today, (which, sadly, it does not, so Go Eagles) followed by my analysis of how the team’s match up (Defense now included!). If you want to see the Phillies lineup, etc, click here.


Major Marlins on the Move:
………(lost their closer)…………….nice

Marlins pitching:
Dontrelle “Had a Few Too Many” Willis
Scott Olsen
Josh Johnson
Anibal “Screw you, I threw a no-hitter” Sanchez
Ricky Nolasco
Closer: Taylor Tankersley (No, I haven’t heard of him either, really)

Fish lineup:
1B Mike Jacobs
2B Dan Uggla
SS Hanley Ramirez
3B Miguel “I’ll be cashing in some day” Cabrera
LF Josh Willingham
CF Alfredo Amezaga
RF Jeremy Hermida
C Miguel Olivo/Matt Treanor



Starting Rotation:

While a number of the kids out there pitching for the Marlins could be future stars, only one is a proven reliable option, and that’s the D-Train Dontrelle Willis (with a beautiful 6.30 ERA against the Phils last year). Here’s an interesting fact: He’s also the only member of the Marlin 5 to pitch over 200 innings in a season. Huh, see how those go together? The difference between the two clubs’ pitching presence is experience. Philadelphia has three proven guys (Hamels is young and Eaton has been oft injured) to Florida’s one. Last year, the Marlins team ERA was, however, lower than the Phillies (compare 4.37 to 4.60), but we’re hoping to change all that with Mr. Freddy Garcia. One interesting note is that the Marlins’ ranked 15th (out of 16) in the NL in walks allowed, another sign of young pitching. Walking is never a good thing, and unless these guys step it up, I’d expect them to keep giving up the runs. Sanchez is a key player to watch, as he is a highly touted prospect these days.

Edge: Phillies


Bullpen/Closer:

The Phillies bullpen is what it is for the time being. Gordon needs to stay healthy and are boys in red need a setup man to help out Geoff Geary. The Marlins, well, who really knows. Borowski notched thirty-six saves last year with a respectable (although high for a closer) 3.75 ERA, but he’s packed his bags for Cleveland. Thus, the fish turn to Taylor Tankersley and his astronomical three career saves. Tankersly is a first round draft pick, and looked good in his first year in the majors in 49 appearances, although the K/BB isn’t a darling stat (46/26), and worse against righties (31/21). His whip is on the high side, too, but stranger things have happened than him stepping up next year. I don’t see either bullpen as a particular strength, so I’m going to have to do this:

Edge: Tie, although watch out for Lieber moving somewhere and the Phils getting bullpen help


Batting:

The batting averages from last year between these two clubs match up about the same, (Marlins .264 Avg, Phils .267 Avg) but the Phils scored a full 107 more runs than the Fish (865 vs. 758). The also outscored the Marlins head to head 120 to 85. Remember A.J. Burnett’s quote? D-Train had the second highest HR per at Bat on the team, going yard once every 21.3 times he stepped into the batter’s box, which isn’t a bad number, but Ryan Howard homered once every ten times he stepped up to the plate. Gee, maybe that had something to do with the MVP. He also ate Marlins pitching for breakfast, batting a sexy .481 against it. This guy is the difference maker on the club, and while fans have been down on Pat Burrell (myself at times included), statistically, he did a pretty good job backing Howard up. A fuller argument is made about that here.

Edge: Phils by a lot

Defense:

Rollins is a consistent shortstop in what should be an above average defense (he has 15 fewer errors than Florida SS Hanley Ramirez, a whopping 26 vs. 11), with Burrell being the obvious weak link in the chain, (although he committed few errors, he has no range). Rowand should have a better defensive year, as should Utley and Howard, and Victorino has a gun out there. People harped on the Marlins’ for their errors all year last year (hey, its always fun to talk about how young ballplayers make more mistakes), and a look at their outfield defense’s fielder percentage vs. the average shows that if you were among the haters, you would be correct. Still, the Phillies should improve defensively, and I think the two people we're looking at here are new recruit Wes Helms and Aaron Rowand.

Edge: Phils, but not by a whole lot

Coaching:

Charlie. Manuel. And, um…Fredi Gonzalez. What’s this cat’s deal?

Edge: Marlins, I guess. Maybe neither. Who’s Fredi Gonzalez?


Prediction: Phils take twelve, fish take six, I go figure out what Fredi Gonzalez knows about baseball other than the hot corner in Atlanta. Seriously, we beat these guys and we're better this year, I expect nothing less than another pounding. Their pitchers and fielders are a little older and wiser, but then, so is Freddy Garcia, and our whole rotation, in fact. In a good way. Not a washed up way. Yeah.

I’ll be out of town for several days on various adventures, but I’ll return soon enough with a look at one of those N.L. West teams, and all the ways Ryan Howard will eat them alive.

Previous Matchups:
Phillies vs. Cubs