The Outback Bowl looks to be an intriguing match-up between the two storied programs of Penn State and Tennessee. Not only is it the first college game of the New Year, but it features two teams whose only losses have come against teams that are currently ranked in the top 11. Penn State lost 4 games to Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin while Tennessee dropped 3 to Florida, LSU and Arkansas.
The main focus of this game will be the play of the explosive Tennessee offense against the stingy Penn State defense. Tennessee’s passing offense is currently ranked in the top 15 due to the potent quarterback-wide receiver combo of juniors Erik Ainge and All-American Robert Meachem. Penn State’s secondary is still relatively young, despite inspiring play from speedy cornerback Justin King and All-Big Ten safety Anthony Scirritto. Penn State struggled against the pass when facing Notre Dame’s spread offense. It locked down on Ohio State’s wide-outs, but at times it has been burned in the middle and downfield. PSU’s pass defense is barely in the top 50 this year.The Tennessee run offense, however, is almost non-existent. Freshman
LaMarcus Coker has broken the 100 yard mark only three times this season, all of them coming against Marshall, Memphis, and Vanderbilt, all of whom have losing records and no respectable defenses. There should be little doubt, then, that Tennessee will be looking to spread out this Penn State defense in a similar manner to that of Notre Dame. Despite losing defensive tackle Ed Johnson for the bowl game, PSU’s defense relies heavily on its line-backing corps of Paul Pozluszny, Dan Connor and Sean Lee to make plays. If they are forced to spread out and cover, it places added pressure on the front four to get after Ainge. Tim Shaw, Jay Alford, and Josh Gaines have combined for 16 sacks, but steady pressure from the defensive front four has been absent for most of the season.
While the Tennessee offense vs. the Penn State defense will be at the center of attention, these teams’ counterparts on offense and defense will go a long way towards determining the winner of the game. Penn State’s offense has been inconsistent at best this past season. The passing game was not up at the same level it was a year ago, despite returning all of the freshmen wide-outs Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood. Most of the blame falls on junior signal caller, Anthony Morelli, who stepped into the starting position after Michael Robinson graduated. Growing pains were frequent as Morelli struggled to put together decent drives that would result in points. The offensive play-calling has also performed a role into its erratic nature. Many plays were either repeated or simply too easy to read by opposing defenses, forcing Morelli essentially to make something out of nothing.
Tony Hunt, on the other hand, has quietly done his part to carry the offense as best he can. He quietly rushed for 1,000 yards for the second straight season and added over 250 yards receiving. Hunt is the player to watch in this game as the Tennessee run defense is one of the worst in the nation, giving up over 140 yards per game this season. Coincidently, Tony Hunt has rushed for 130 yards or more in 7 of the last 10 games. For Penn State to hang in this game, they must keep the Vols’ potent pass offense off of the field by sustaining long drives. The offense can control the clock by rushing Hunt up the middle against a questionable front seven. The SEC has always preached it is the fastest conference in the nation. Speed, though, does not help in tackling a power back who is notorious for running over smaller sized defenders. Tennessee is also at a lost because one their starting defensive tackles, Justin Harrell to a season ending injury and there has been a persistent failure of sacking the quaterback and forcing turnovers.
Penn State’s air attack may not have much success in this game not only due to the slow learning curve of Morelli. The strength of the Vols’s defense lies in their secondary, which ranks in the top 30 in the nation and is led by defensive backs Jonathon Hefney and Demtrice Morley. Hefney leads the team in both tackles (93) and interceptions (5). Morley is a solid D-back who was formerly named to the Sporting News’ All-SEC Freshmen team in 2005. If the secondary, though, is making most of the tackles, it would be a clear indication that Penn State is in control with their running game.
With all these factors in mind, I also have to include one more: the time between games. For both teams, it has been over a month since they have both played. After watching the Orange Bowl last year, I presume this lay-off time plays in favor of the Nittany Lions. Last year’s Penn State team had an explosive offense in the form of Michael Robinson, its wide receivers, and Tony Hunt, but Florida State came out and played an outstanding game defensively. Penn State’s defense has stepped up its level of play towards the end of the season, allowing only two touchdowns in its last five games while shutting out two opponents. Four out of those five games were won.
This aspect may not yield the same result, but it is important to note because with so much time off, each of these offensive and defensive units will be out-of-synch. The Tennessee offense may suffer a similar fate of the Penn State offense in the Orange Bowl—that team started fast, but struggled at times to move the ball against a good Florida State defense. The Lions’ defense should take advantage of this early by playing a physical style of football they have played late this season and hamper the speed of this SEC team early to get their offense on the field. If they can contain this Volunteer offense, especially when they are spread out, and rely on the offense to keep drives going, Penn State has the potential to end this season on a high note and gain some momentum going into next season.
Prediction:
Penn State 24 Tennessee 21:
A long shot, but I believe the PSU defense is capable of stopping this Volunteer offense and setting up the offense with short field by forcing a turnover or two. The offense hopefully will start clicking after all of the experience this season as well as the time off to study the Tennessee defense.
