Phillies vs. Opponents: Episode Three

In part three of the efforts of someone desperate for the baseball season to start, here’s how I think the Phillies rank up against their west coast nemesis, the San Diego Padres. The Padres were not a good matchup for Philadelphia, as evidenced by the 2-4 record. If you want to see the Phillies lineup, etc, click here.


The big deals of San Diego:

Signed pitcher Greg Maddux for one year, 10 million
Signed second baseman Marcus Giles for one year, 3.75 million

Padre pitchin’:
Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Greg Maddux
Clay Hensley
Mike Thompson
Closer: Trevor Hoffman

San Diego lineup:

1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Marcus Giles
SS Khalil Greene
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
LF Russell Branyan
CF Mike Cameron
RF Brian Giles
C Josh Bard

Starting Rotation:

One thing the Padres have going for them that the Phillies do not is a bona-fide ace, and that is Mr. Jake Peavy. Sure, any one of Myers, Hamels or Garcia could step up to that role, but Peavy is already there, and don’t let his numbers from last season fool you. Peavy’s ERA of 4.09 in the 2006 season was certainly a let down from his previous two monster seasons, but his DIPS (defense independent pitching statistic), a barometer I much prefer for projecting future value, ranked third in the NL behind Brandon Webb and Roy Oswalt. He also tied for first in the NL tough losses (both he and Aaron Cook had seven), which is quality starts that you end up losing. If Peavy hadn't gotten plumpied quite so often, he could have easily been 15-10 instead of 11-14. I expect him to rebound big. However, this says nothing of the rest of San Diego’s staff, which plays in lovely (and pitcher friendly) Petco park, very different from the bandbox in Philadelphia. And, Chris Young may have used up all the SD luck by the time Peavy pitched, as he was incredibly lucky. The Padres also play in a pitcher friendly park, so that should factor into an analysis of their ERA. On a side note, Peavy took a page out of Phillies’ pitchers' repertoire and recently got himself in a little bit of trouble with the law. Take a look here.

Edge: Phillies, except when Peavy pitches


Bullpen/Closer:

While Tom Gordon was no slouch this year, Trevor Hoffman is the all time saves leader, and that’s kind of a big deal. He also notched 46 saves last year, and pulled in a 2.14 ERA. So, yeah, the guy still has it. San Diego had the third lowest bullpen ERA last season in the majors at 3.42, so it wasn’t just big Trev keeping these guys alive in later innings. Scott Linebrink is one of the absolute best middle-relievers in the game, and had the most holds in the NL last year with 36. Cla Meredith also got things done. We, on the other hand, had Arthur Rhodes. If you want to know how the Padres made the post season while the Phils went home, look no further than the pen.

Edge: Padres, far and away


Batting:

Well, San Diego ranked 26th in runs scored in baseball, as compared to the Phils, who ranked fourth, and as we all should know by now, first in the NL. The two teams batting averages are about the same (.263 San Diego, .267 Philly), but the boys in red outslugged San Diego rather significantly (.447 compared to .416). The impact player on the Padres is supposed to be Brian Giles, and for the star player on the team, he had a pretty weak season, posting a .263 average, and particularly awful for a guy with alleged power, 14 long balls. I don’t see his brother making much of an impact, either. Adrian Gonzalez has the best stats on the team with a .304 BA and 24 homers, both leading the team. Philadelphia has Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

Edge: Our Phillies. By a ton.


Coaching:

Bruce Bochy is living his life out there in San Diego, and he’s been with the team in some capacity for 23 years, so someone must think he’s doing a good job. Bochy is a two time manager of the year winner (in 1996 and 1998), and Charlie I-Need-A-Manuel, well…..

Edge: Padres


Defense:

Both of these teams have a fairly average defense, with Rollins and Dave Roberts (no errors in 116 games) as the biggest standouts, and Roberts won’t be back. Piazza won’t be lining up as catcher for the Padres, so there won’t be guys strolling to second base anymore. While any game can be won on error capitalization, this category is too close to call.

Edge: Tie


Prediction:

The Padres were one of the reasons the Phillies didn’t see much October action last year, so here’s hoping that changes in 2007. We don’t see San Diego until July, so who knows where either team will be by then. While I think San Diego’s pitching is impressive, their hitting is atrocious. The Phillies swept the Padres in 2005, so let’s hope that happens again. The Phils are 13-5 against the Padres since 2004, but four of those losses came this past year. The free-swinging Phillies have their work cut out for them, but should be able to handle team Giles.

Bottom Line: Phils take four out of seven


Previous Matchups:
Phils vs. Marlins
Phils vs. Cubs