My apologies for running a little late on this. The Phillies vs. the National League continues with a look out how they might fare against the cream of the crop in the NL East last year, the New York Mets. Last year, the Phillies didn’t do too badly against the Mets, but they certainly took many a memorable beating. I recall an extra innings affair where Madson shut out the Mets for about five or six innings, only to have Beltran launch a walk off solo shot. These were hard times for a Phillies fan. Do the Mets still have it? Are they still going to pound our Phightin Phils? Read on, and find out. As always, for a look at the Phillies offseason, click here.
The Mets’ Moves:
Re-signed RP Duaner Sanchez to 1 year, $.85 million
Re-signed RP Guillermo Mota to 2 years, $5 million
Re-signed SP Tom Glavine for 1 year, $10.5 million
Signed OF Moises Alou for 1 year, $8.5 million
Mets Starting Rotation:
Tom Glavine
Orlando Hernandez
John Maine
Oliver Perez
Mike Pelfrey
Closer: Billy Wagner
Mets Lineup:
1B Carlos Delgado
2B Jose Valentin
SS Jose Reyes
3B David Wright
LF Moises Alou
CF Carlos Beltran
RF Shawn Green
C Paul LoDuca
Starting Rotation:
Well, we do have the Mets with this one. No one’s going to question Tom Glavine as a stud, and I’d like to see him get to 300 wins (although I don’t want any of the remaining ones to come against the Phillies), but the Mets lost big time when they didn’t sign Barry Zito. Now, I’m not saying they should have outbid those silly Giants, but their rotation is not looking good. A top three of Glavine/Zito/Hernandez wouldn’t have been anything to sneeze at, but John Maine? The Mets won in the long run by not blowing their wad on Zito, especially when much better pitchers will be on the market within the next couple years (Zambrano, Santano), but its going to hurt them this year. Perez is kind of like a poor man’s Brett Myers. He’s a complete headcase, but if he ever gets it together, he could be a serious threat. However, we’ve been waiting on that for a long time, and it has yet to come.
Edge: Phillies
Bullpen/Closer:
The Mets cream us here, unquestionably. Things took a turn for the worst when they signed Billy Wagner as their closer, and it hasn’t let up. Duaner Sanchez is a stud in the bullpen, as is Aaron Heilman, as is Pedro Feliciano, and Guillermo Mota has the potential to succeed as well. Last year the Mets had the best bullpen ERA in the NL (at 3.25), and I see no substantial reason for that to change unless Wagner goes down. Even then, this team has a stacked bullpen, one of the best in baseball. If the Phillies want to beat the Mets this season, they can’t count on doing it in the later innings. Sure, we’ve got a good closer who’s feeling solid, but that’s about it. Unfortunately, this means in close, competitive games, the Phillies absolutely do not have the advantage.
Edge: Mets, big time
Batting Lineup:
This area gave me the most pause. After all, the Phillies were the NL’s most potent offense last season, but the Mets weren’t far behind. With the addition of Alou to complement stars like Reyes, Wright, Beltran, and Delgado, this team probably has the best offense in the NL. If you don’t believe me, you can take a look at this. I think the Phillies can go head to head early on in the batting order; it’s a close call to decide if you’d prefer Reyes, LoDuca, Beltran and Delgado to Rollins, Victorino, Utley, and Howard. The difference maker is in the bottom of the batting order. Where the Phillies will trot out Burrell, Rowand (maybe), Helms, and Ruiz/Barajas, the Mets are putting out Wright, Alou, Valentin, and Green. There’s simply no place in the lineup (barring the pitcher’s spot) where you can catch your breath. Another important stat is the highly touted Mets batting average with runners in scoring position, which at .274 was good for third in the NL (the Phillies ranked thirteenth). The Phillies also had the word batting average with runners in scoring position with two outs in the NL at a pitiful .201. There’s a lot of guys on our team that feel the need to press, or try to hit a five run homer. I’m thinking of Rollins, and even Howard at times, as good as he is. Burrell is also anti-clutch, but at least he’ll take a look at five or so pitches before he strikes out. One of the things I’d like to see the Phillies do more of this year is manufacture runs. A lot of that starts with Rollins, but I’d expect to see Victorino and Rowand swipe bags as well. This is the kind of thing the Mets do exceptionally well. Reyes clocks a double, makes his way to third, LoDuca hits a gapper and all of a sudden its 1-0 with a man on first and Beltran at the plate. Disgusting.
Edge: Mets, due to bottom of lineup
Defense:
The Mets had a relatively average defense last year, with everyone playing at about the average level. One of the few exceptions came in left field with Cliff Floyd, who’s not around anymore. Alou is a decent fielder, although nothing exceptional. The Phillies defense struggled last year, and is looking to get back on track. I’m sure several of the games we’ll play against the Mets will come down to defense, but right now, I’d say it’s too hard to call. The Mets has an all-around solid defense, but so do the Phillies on paper (Burrell being a notable exception given his pathetic range). If Rowand moves, it will be interesting to see just how much ground Victorino tries to cover in center field, given his exceptional speed.
Edge: Tie.
The Bottom Line:
The Phillies gave the Mets a run for their money earlier in the season, but then took a few too many beatings to ever get a chance at catching them. The season record stood at 11-8 in the Mets favor. Unfortunately, as optimistic as I’ve been in many of these posts, I think the Mets will continue to win the series against the Phillies. What should keep us in games is our starting pitching, but given the Mets’ offensive power, I think there’s going to be a lot of close games that their offense and bullpen will win in the later innings.
Final Prediction: Mets win ten, Phillies win nine. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. It hurts me just as much as it hurts you, trust me.
Tune in next time where we’ll all feel a lot better as we round out a look at the NL East with investigating how the Phillies stack up against what’s left of the Washington Nationals.
Take a look at the other matchups here:
NL East:
Atlanta
Florida
NL Central:
Houston
Cubs
NL West:
San Francisco
San Diego
