Continuing our mildly popular series of Phils vs. Opponents, keep reading to see how the Phillies match up against those wily Cincinnati Reds. I’m of the camp that believes that last year’s moderate success of the Reds was a complete and total fluke, and that they’re going to have their collective asses handed to them by the big bad guys of the NL Central (namely the Cubs, Astros, and Cardinals). Despite being decent, the Phils beat up on the Reds last year, posting a 6-2 record against them. Is anything going to change this year? Read on, and find out. For the Phils offseason moves and their lineup, click here. Reds Offseason of Uselessness:
Signed SS Alex Gonzalez…break out the champagne now, boys
Re-signed SP Aaron Harang for 4 years, $36.5 million
Reds Starting Rotation:
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Eric Milton
Kyle Lohse
Closer: Todd Coffrey
Question Marks: Er…the fifth spot in the rotation
Reds Lineup:
1B Scott Hatteberg
2B Brandon Philips
SS Alex Gonzalez
3B Edwin Encarnacion
LF Adam Dunn
CF Ken Griffey Jr.
RF Ryan Freel
C David Ross/Javier Valentin
Starting Rotation:
Harang really came into his own last year, posting a 3.76 ERA and an even better 3.55 DIPS. Also, he’s a strikeout hero, dropping a very solid 8.30 K/9 (good for fifth in the NL, and two spots behind our own Brett Myers). The problem with this is that the rest of Reds starters don’t have much of anything. Arroyo had a strong start when he first showed up in ole Cincy last year in the Wily Mo Pena deal, but he can’t really be considered a powerful legit second. Take a look at the huge disparagement between his ERA (3.29) and his DIPS (4.06). That’s indicative of a man due for a fall. Yet, despite this, Cincy starters had decent numbers, posting a 4.58 ERA (good for sixth, versus the Phillies awful 14th). However, the upgrades to the Phillies’ top five has got to blow away whatever the Reds are working with, which I cannot even be entirely sure I’m aware of, as I don’t know who they’re fifth man is.
Edge: Phillies
Bullpen/Closer:
Cincinatti traded half their team for bullpen help last year, and yet they’re going to be trucking Todd Coffrey out to close their games. We all know the Phillies bullpen is less than heroic, and a Rowand for Linebrink deal is something we really need given the difficulty in finding a man of Linebrink’s talents. Cormier, Stanton, and Weather are going to need to step up, but I think they can handle it.
Edge: Reds
Batting:
Right, this is a joke. You can almost go position by position for a laugh. Ryan Howard vs. Scott Hatteberg. Brandon Philips vs. Chase Utley. Jimmy Rollins vs. Alex Gonzalez. Maybe Wes Helms vs, Edwin Encarnacion is about even, but hell, I even like Burrell vs. Dunn. They both strike out a ton and draw lots of walks, but compare 194 K’s vs. 112 BB’s (Dunn’s numbers) to 131 K’s vs. 98 BB’s. Sure, Dunn hit 40 dingers last year, but his batting average was .236. Gross. We crush the Reds here, even if old man Griffey is feeling limber this year.
Edge: Phils
Defense:
A weak point for the Phils last year where maybe it shouldn’t have been, our boys in red are going to need to get back on track when the ball is put in play. The other boys in red…er, the Reds, have below average defense at just about every position. Hatteberg looked good at first base, commiting only four errors, but Brandon Philips played below average d, and Encarnacion looked especially terrible, commiting 25 errors at third and posting a .915 fielding percentage (compare that to the .954 league average). Fortunately, Encarnacion makes up for that with his exceptional offense, right? Gonzalez will certainly help out the defense here at shortstop, but the rest of the infield, and most of the outfield, just isn't looking so hot.
Edge: Phillies. Yeah.
Bottom Line:
The Reds moderate success last year was a fluke, and this team blew their load with that awful trade to Washington. Get Homer Bailey into the majors, try to get something back for Dunn, and build your team around Harang. Maybe we can talk in a couple of years. Spring Training is around the corner, so expect these posts to start coming out more frequently. Next up is the feared Mets. Seeya soon, kids.
Verdict: Phils take five, Reds eek out one
For previous opinions of varying degrees of usefulness, check these out:
Phillies vs. San Francisco
Phillies vs. Atlanta
Phillies vs. Houston
Phils vs. San Diego
Phils vs. Florida
Phils vs. Cubs
