After many delays, we now continue our series of the Phillies against the National League as we round out the NL East with how the Phils might fare against the Washington Nationals. Now on paper, we should kick the crap out of this group, and we should have done it last year as well. However, the Phils went 9-10 against this group, including a couple awful losses during the final week of the season that kept us out of the playoffs. What’s changed this year? Read on and find out. As always, click here to take a look at the Phillies offseason.
Nats Offseason:
Re-signed RF Austin Kearns for three years, $17.5 million
Lost Alfonso Soriano, whom they had no chance of keeping anyway
Nats Starting Five:
John Patterson
Mike O’Conner
Billy Traber
Shawn Hill
Jason Bergmann
Closer: Chad Cordero
Nats Lineup:
1B Nick Johnson
2B Felipe Lopez
SS Cristian Guzman
3B Ryan Zimmerman
LF Ryan Church
CF Alex Escobar
RF Austin Kearns
C Brian Schneider/Brandon Harper
Starting Rotation:
Raise your hand if you’ve heard of anyone besides the first two names in that National starting five? No? Well, there’s probably a reason for that. The Nationals are poised to lose 100 games this year with the crew they’re expecting to truck out for (hopefully) five innings per game. Their pitching gave up the most runs in the NL last year, had the worst E.R.A. (at a sexy 5.03), and had a delightful .274 BAA (good for 12th, one ahead of the Phils). That old adage about starting pitching winning ballgames exist because it’s true, and the Nationals are simply not going to win a lot of games this year. I like John Patterson, who was injured for the majority of last year, but I don’t think he’s the kind of guy that can step up and be the ace this team so desperately needs. I like him as a number two or three starter, but he can’t be expected to lead this team to victory every five days.
Edge: Phillies
Bullpen:
The year before this past one, the bullpen is what kept the Nats alive through the All Star Break in the NL East. Cordero is a stud down there, but most of the big guys in the bullpen went to the Reds in the big deal last summer. Washington was a little better in relief than in starting pitching, but still not so hot. The Phillies’ bullpen isn’t exactly a group of champions, but we’ve got the Nats sewed up here as well.
Edge: Phillies
Batting Lineup:
Last year, the Nats had a monster player in Alfonso Soriano, a leadoff man with pop in his bat and a bounce in his step. They no longer have him. The Phillies, however, still have Ryan Howard, perhaps the biggest threat in the National League (Pujols is his only real competition). Last year in the NL, the Nationals ranked 12th in batting average and 10th in runs, yet did come in fourth in on-base percentage (the Phils ranked second there). However, remember; Soriano is gone. Still, recruits from the foolish Reds should be useful for the offense all year long, but can’t really compete with losing ole Fonsy. Their batting average with runners in scoring position was even worse than the Phillies, and good for fifteenth in the NL. Needless to say, the Phillies have them beat here.
Edge: Phillies
Defense:
The Nationals were simply not a good defensive team last year. With the exception of some solid play from Jose Vidro at second base (wonder what would have happened if Soriano had played there), they pretty much underformed the average in fielding percentage at just about every position. The team is rather young, so hopefully more experience can only help them out. Felipe Lopez has never been an exceptional fielder, though, so this could hurt the team at short, a very important defensive position.
Edge: Phillies
Final Verdict:
We should have kicked the pants off the Nationals all last year, and with Soriano gone and pitching a shambles from top to bottom, we need to ensure that the Nats are the celler dwellers of the NL East. Going .500 against this team is simply unacceptable. The Phillies are going to need to win the lion’s share of these games, because more losses can be expected against much better teams in the Braves and the Mets, and even perhaps the Marlins given all of their young talent. I’m predicting the Phillies to pound the Nats, and if I’m wrong, we’re in a lot of trouble.
Bottom Line: Phillies take twelve, Nationals take seven. Come back very soon to see how the Phillies stack up against the Arizona Diamondbacks. I’d like to have these all done before the end of Spring Training, so here’s hoping. If you’re looking to see some of my earlier thoughts, check these out:
NL East:
Atlanta
Florida
Mets
NL Central:
Houston
Cubs
NL West:
San FranciscoSan Diego
