Saturday, March 31, 2007

Phillies vs. Dodgers

The Dodgers were one of the reasons the Phillies didn’t make the playoffs last year with their hot September, including the memorable game-turned-Home Run Derby. They also beat the Phillies in the series last year, 4-3. They also had a very productive offseason. How will the Phillies respond? Read on. As always, check out this or this to take a look at the Phillies.

Dodgers Offseason:

Signed OF Juan Pierre for five years, $44 million
Signed SP Jason Schmidt for 3 years, $47 million
Signed SP Randy Wolf for 1 year, $8 million
Signed OF Luis Gonzalez for 1 year, $7.35 million
Signed Takashi Saito for 1 year, $1 million
Listened to old-timers complain about the team leaving Brooklyn for another year. No money changed hands regarding this.

Dodgers Starting Five:

Jason Schmidt
Randy Wolf
Derek Lowe
Brad Penny
Mrett Tomko
Closer: Takashi Saito

Dodgers Lineup:

1B Nomar Garciaparra
2B Jeff Kent
SS Rafael Furcal
3B Wilson Betemit
LF Luis Gonzalez
CF Juan Pierre
RF Andre Ethier
C Russell Martin/Mike Lieberthal


Starting Rotation:

People have been talking about the Dodgers rotation for most of the offseason, and it is stacked, even moreso than the Phillies. Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, and Randy Wolf could anchor any rotation, and the addition of Schmidt is enormous. He is an ace, but any of these guys could carry the Dodgers to victory. I’ve always thought Derek Lowe was a very talented guy who never realized his full potential, but he’s definitely clutch, as he pitched well down the stretch last year, but more memorably led the Red Sox to their first World Series in blah blah blah. Schilling’s sock is the more memorable story from that affair, but Lowe’s performance, particularly in game seven against the Yankees in the ALCS, should not be discounted. He’s done well for himself, and Schmidt should do well for himself. This rotation is a force.

Edge: Dodgers


Bullpen:

Saito was a successful closer last year, posting a 2.07 ERA, 107 Ks, and 24 saves. He also held opponents to a sub-.200 batting average against him. Jonathan Broxton was a champion out of the pen as well, dropping 97 Ks in his 76 and 1/3 innings pitched with a 2.59 ERA to accompany it. Nevertheless, the Dodgers’ bullpen ERA last year was 4.12, just about average, and not as good as the Phillies. Before anyone gets excited, I’m not about to say the Phillies have a better pen. That’s obviously nonsense. But it was something interesting to note. Also, Yhency Brazoban (you can’t make up names like Yhency) is back off of Tommy John surgery, so we’ll see how he looks. Even though many of the Dodgers relievers other than Saito and Broxton don’t look too impressive, the one-two punch of these guys at the bottom of the game is solid.

Edge: Dodgers


Batting Lineup:

The Dodgers decided to go after runs the old-fashioned way by stacking their lineup with speed. In Furcal and Pierre there are two excellent lead-off men. After that, things get a little more dicey. No one’s going to argue with the previous accomplishments of both Nomar Garciaparra and Jeff Kent, but both players have to be considered in the twilight of their careers at this point, and I doubt their offensive production will be very substantial. The same can be said of Luis Gonzalez. It will be interesting to see how youngsters like Andre Ethier play this year. This team isn’t going to belt its way to the postseason, but that’s not their goal. Small-ball and pitching is how the Dodgers will win, not homers.

Edge: Phillies


Defense:

This is of particular importance for a sinker ball pitcher like Derek Lowe, and last year, the Dodgers were not a good team in the field. They made 115 errors (fifth in the NL) and their fielder percentage, at .982, put them in 12th place in the NL. Furcal was not good at shortstop, and until Wilson Betemit arrived, third base was a disaster. Ethier will need to perform better in left field.

Edge: Phillies


Bottom Line:

The Dodgers a solid ball club with, on paper, the best starting pitching in the National League. I predict them winning the NL West, and with the solidity of their rotation and a decent bullpen, they could be going places in the playoffs. As with many of these teams, we don’t play the Dodgers until late in the season, so its hard to say what the rosters will look like by then, and where the clubs will be in the standings. As it is now, though, I have to take the Dodgers.

Final Verdict: Dodgers 4, Phillies 2. Only one NL team left to examine: The Pirates. Va Fa Pittsburgh. You do not want to miss this shit-talking.

NL East:

Atlanta
Florida
NY Mets
Washington

NL Central:

Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati
Houston
Milwaukee
St. Louis

NL West:

Arizona
Colorado
San Francisco
San Diego