More Phillies versus opponents action, with a look at the Atlanta Braves, who’ve been a hot topic this past week with their moving Adam LaRoche for the spectacular relief pitcher Mike Gonzalez (a guy I wish the Phillies had acquired). The Phils had a nice season against the Braves last year, going 11-7. Of course, the Braves’ historic run of division wins came to an end last season with the emergence of the Mets, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be considered a threat this year. Here’s a look at the Braves roster and big offseason moves before we get into the analysis. Click here for the Phils’ roster, although in recent news, Utley received a sexy seven year extension, so go buy up his Phillies shirt now.
Braves on the Move:
Traded 1B Adam LaRoche for RP Mike Gonzalez & player to be named later
Traded SP Horacio Ramirez for RP Rafael Soriano
Signed RP Tanyon Sturtze for 1 year, $750,000
Braves Pitching:
John Smoltz
Tim Hudson
Chuck James
Kyle Davies
Mike Hampton
Closer: Bob Wickman
Braves Lineup:
1B Craig Wilson
2B Martin Prado
SS Edgar Renteria
3B Chipper Jones
LF Ryan Langerhans
CF Andruw Jones
RF Jeff Francoeur
C Brian McCann/Brayan Pena
Starting Rotation:
The big story in the Braves’ starting five is whether or not Tim Hudson can return to form. It’s interesting to think about the former big three of Oakland (Hudson, Mulder, and Zito), all of whom are now gone, and only one of whom had a good year last year (hint: It’s the one who got the obscene pay check from the Giants, as commented on at this very blog). Hudson’s big fat 4.86 ERA didn’t get the job for the Braves, and his 4.42 DIPS isn’t a whole lot better. Also embarrassing is that .281 average and really ugly .846 OPS against lefties. And who bats left for the Phillies? Hudson also ranked 9th in the NL in Base on Balls. However, there are other characters in the Braves’ starting rotation. Smoltz-y had a nice year, dropping a 3.49 ERA and 3.41 DIPS, and a pretty sexy 8.19 K/9. He’s clearly the ace of this crew. It will be interesting to see how Hampton returns from Tommy John surgery, and if Kyle Davies can start pitching instead of just getting slaughtered.
Edge: Phillies
Closer/Bullpen:
Atlanta’s bullpen last year didn’t look like much (ranking eleventh in the NL), so they’ve spent the majority of their offseason turning a huge weakness into a strength, or at least that’s their hope. The three new big names that will be mopping up games for Atlanta are Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, and Tanyon Sturtze. The Braves will also be getting a full year of Bob Wickman. Of the new guys, Mike Gonzalez is the most highly touted, but Rafael Soriano is not to be ignored. In 60 IP, Soriano dropped a solid 2.25 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a nice 65/21 K/BB. Sturtze is mostly worthless, but Wickman, Soriano, and Gonzalez are spearheading a very strong bullpen. The Phils have Tom Gordon, and the buck stops there.
Edge: Braves
Batting:
As I’ve mentioned several times, the Phillies were the cream of the crop in batting in the National League. But, Atlanta had a higher team batting average and slugging (.267 vs. .270, .447 vs. .455), and also had a much better batting average with RISP (.275 vs. .255(. Although they didn’t take home the division last year, Atlanta still has proven hitters in the two Jones’ (Andruw and Chipper). However, the Braves will need stronger contributions from Ryan Langerhans (.241 BA last year) and Jeff Francouer (.260 BA, 132 K’s vs. 23 BB’s) if they expect to compete with the likes of the Mets and the Phillies. Something tells me Craig Wilson isn’t the answer.
Edge: Phillies
Defense:
We all know Andruw Jones is a monster in center field, but the rest of the Atlanta D is just about average. Giles was pretty solid at second last year, but he’s gone. One interesting fact is how good the Brave’s pitchers were defensively. Hudson committed no errors in his 218 innings (unless you count walking everyone an error), and James and Davies were also error-free. Consider this: The average fielding percentage for pitchers last year was .957, and the Braves staff had a .980 fielding percentage. So much for ground balls up the middle.
Edge: Braves
Coaching:
Bobby Cox is amazing blah blah blah ten thousand divison titles in a row blah blah blah second coming of Christ blah.
Edge: Braves
Prediction:
I believe that last year was likely an off year for the Braves. With a much better bullpen, and another year under the belt of many of it’s young players, Atlanta could be a strong threat in the NL East once more. However, I like the Phillies starting rotation and batting lineup more than that of the Braves, and I think we should be able to win against them more often than lose. If the Mets fall apart with their weak rotation, it could get interesting come September, when the Phillies will take on the Braves six times. We'll head out west again in the next episode in this series.
Bottom Line: Phils win 10, Atlanta takes 8.
For previous entries in Phils vs. Opponents, check these out:
Phillies vs. Houston
Phils vs. San Diego
Phils vs. Florida
Phils vs. Cubs
