Quick Stains: May 10th

Today I want to look at a very specific issue. Namely,

The Ryan Howard Situation:

What are we to make of Ryan Howard this year? The MVP of last year is experiencing his sophomore slump a tad too late, and he’s looked terrible at the plate. Last night, in a pitch-hitting role, Howard came out swinging and cranked a grand slam to give the Phillies the lead (and eventually the win). Howard has 6 homeruns this season. He has sat the last several days, although allegedly will start on Friday against the Chicago Cubs. Can we assume from the slam that Howard is back? Probably too early to tell. Here’s what he do know about the Howard situation:

1. He’s hitting .122 vs. left-handed pitchers, despite two of his homers coming against them

2. He’s hitting .182 in away-games.

3. When he makes an out, 42.9% of the time he’s getting K-ed up

4. His on base percentage is .380, much higher than that .204 average

What concerns me here is that 42.9% strikeout rate. Even if Howard does stop pulling the ball, he needs to put it in play a whole lot more. Compare that 42.9% to Rollins’ 19.1%. Many players rely entirely on not striking out. They base their careers off of putting the ball in play and then seeing what happens. While this is too much to ask for from Howard, the fact remains that barring a double-play ball, a strikeout is the most disappointing way to end an at bat.

Good sign of May: Howard has already tied his homerun total from April (3).

Bad sign of May: Howard is batting even worse, at .143.

What can we expect from Howard for the rest of the season?

Barring injury, by season’s end I think we can expect a .260 average, 100 RBIs, and 30 HRs. None of this is out of the question. Would we expect more from him? Of course. At the start of the season, I anticipated close to 50 long balls and somewhere around 130 RBIs. The only number I expected to dip down from last season was the batting average, far too high for a player with his strikeout rate. The ball will carry more in Citizen’s Bank as the weather grows warm, and should Howard manage to stop pulling, we can expect a lot more singles. I hate to harp on it, but the strikeouts are what disappoint me the most.

Read here for some more complaining about the Phillies, including some stuff about the minor league teams.

Phillies take on the cubs tomorrow. Rich Hill, who has been superb for the Cubs, will face Phillies ace Cole Hamels. Lieber was supposed to go, but has a cut on his finger, and thus will not pitch until Sunday.